银行信贷政策与产业结构调整——工商银行构建金融支持体系服务江苏产业结构调整的设想

产业结构的调整与优化是江苏“十一五”期间经济持续快速发展的重要环节，而高效的金融支持体系是确保产业结构调整优化的基本条件。本文分析了银行在产业结构调整中的作用和互动关系，考察了国内外银行调整产业结构的成功经验，围绕江苏产业结构现状及其“十一五”时期产业发展远景目标，提出了工商银行引导区域产业合理布局、促进金融产品组合创新、优化行业资金结构、开辟新的信贷市场领域、实现客户结构战略转型等支持江苏产业结构调整的金融路径；并剖析了银行在支持产业结构调整中的内外部制约因素，进一步提出了工商银行按照产业结构调整要求深化改革的内部措施和构建金融生态环境的外部建议。     

A study of earnings-management motives in the Anglo-American and Euro-Continental accounting models: The Canadian and French cases

The purpose of this paper is to investigate factors that potentially influence earnings-management policy with reference to the Anglo-American and Euro-Continental accounting models. Canada and France, respectively, belong to those different socio-economic environments. Earnings-management practices detected in those countries are expected to be affected by specific socio-economic features of the Anglo-American and the Euro-Continental environments. We explain earnings-management practices by incentives suggested in the literature to reveal which motives are prominent within each environment.We tested our earnings-management motives (EMM) model using appropriate panel-estimation techniques over 1674 Canadian and 1470 French firm-year observations. Our results provide evidence that incentives for earnings management for French firms are specifically linked to contractual debt costs and effective tax rate. However, Canadian firms show specific incentives matched with a dynamic capital market. Issuing equity is a strong motive for earnings management in Canadian firms.     

武汉担当中部崛起“龙头”的金融对策研究

党中央从统筹区域发展的高度，提出了“中部地区崛起”战略。武汉作为中部地区的特大型城市，担当中部崛起“龙头”既得天时，也有地利，更具人和。银行作为金融部门，支持武汉担当中部崛起“龙头”责无旁贷，其主要措施是：集合金融资源，积极支持武汉实施城市联动战略；加快金融体制创新和业务创新，积极探索和设立基金管理公司，成立中部开发银行和中部发展银行，支持国有商业银行在武汉市进行信贷资产和住房抵押贷款证券化试点，尝试资产管理公司与政府合作处理不良资产，大力发展投资银行业务等；改善金融生态环境，提高信贷政策对产业政策的敏感度和金融资源配置效率，引导金融支持的方向和力度。     

国内金融市场完全开放对国有商业银行的影响

按照入世协定书中的开放时问表，我国在入世5年后也即2006年底将实行金融业的全面开放。本文认为，我国金融市场完全开放将对国内商业银行带来深远影响：一是在政策层面，经济政策、金融政策、配套政策的进一步开放将使金融业的进入门槛降低，从而带来竞争主体的多元和竞争的更加市场化；二是在市场层面，客户的金融知识的普及和客户的议价能力的提高造成客户对银行需求也在不断提高；三是在竞争层面上，竞争主体、竞争模式和竞争手段的改变将使银行业面临更为复杂的竞争局面。为应对上述影响，国有商业银行应根据自身优势，扬长避短，根据不同情况，综合运用不同战略，以期达到持续发展的目标。     

产业集群、区域经济与金融深化——金融支持中国戴南产业集群发展模式研究

积极实施城市反哺农村，工业反哺农业，以工业化致富农民，城市化带动农村，产业化提升农业，是建设社会主义新农村的成功经验。金融作为现代经济的核心，是支持社会主义新农村建设不可或缺的重要因素。本文结合中国戴南产业集群发展的轨迹，剖析了戴南产业集群发展的现状、特点以及制约集群进一步发展的金融瓶颈，提出了金融支持戴南产业集群发展的构想，着重指出了转变观念、创新机制、组合产品、完善体系等四个方面金融支持的新路径，为金融助推产业集群在经济欠发达地区的率先发展，提供了重要的实践模式。     

Mean–variance and mean–semivariance portfolio selection: a multivariate nonparametric approach

While univariate nonparametric estimation methods have been developed for estimating returns in mean-downside risk portfolio optimization, the problem of handling possible cross-correlations in a vector of asset returns has not been addressed in portfolio selection. We present a novel multivariate nonparametric portfolio optimization procedure using kernel-based estimators of the conditional mean and the conditional median. The method accounts for the covariance structure information from the full set of returns. We also provide two computational algorithms to implement the estimators. Via the analysis of 24 French stock market returns, we evaluate the in-sample and out-of-sample performance of both portfolio selection algorithms against optimal portfolios selected by classical and univariate nonparametric methods for three highly different time periods and different levels of expected return. By allowing for cross-correlations among returns, our results suggest that the proposed multivariate nonparametric method is a useful extension of standard univariate nonparametric portfolio selection approaches.     

Reversible Environmental Catastrophes with Disconnected Generations

De Economist - We study environmental policy in a stylized economy–ecology model featuring multiple deterministic stable steady-state ecological equilibria. The economy–ecology does not...     

Inflation and the Exchange Rate: The Role of Aggregate Demand Elasticity

This paper examines the effect of aggregate demand elasticity on the exchange rate when inflation occurs. We discover that both the source of the inflation, whether demand-pull or cost-push, and the elasticity of aggregate demand with respect to the price level, are of consequence for the exchange rate. We obtain two primary conclusions. First, the effect on the exchange rate of cost push inflation is ambiguous and is partially determined by the price level elasticity of aggregate demand. In particular, and assuming that the two examined countries have equivalent aggregate supply elasticities, we conclude that the nation with the less elastic aggregate demand function will see its currency appreciate relative to the other. Second, demand-pull inflation results in an unambiguous increase in the exchange rate but the size of that increase is partially a function of aggregate demand elasticity. Assuming again that two countries have equivalent aggregate supply elasticities, that country with the more elastic aggregate demand will experience currency appreciation.     

Saddlepoint approximations to the mean and variance of the extended hypergeometric distribution

Conditional inference on 2 x 2 tables with fixed margins and unequal probabilities is based on the extended hypergeometric distribution. If the support of the distribution is large, exact calculation of the conditional mean and variance of the table entry may be computationally demanding. This paper proposes a single‐saddlepoint approximation to the mean and variance. While the approximation achieves acceptable accuracy for ordinary practical purposes, an alternative saddlepoint approximation is provided that gives much closer to exact results. It improves the accuracy of current approximations to up to more than four powers of ten.